ASQ Silicon Valley Social Equity, Risk, Reliability, and Uncertainty April 15, 2009

Which would you prefer?

1. Ignore risk, reliability, and uncertainty and hope for good luck?

2. Quantify risk, reliability, and uncertainty and then use them for profit, social welfare, risk management, and uncertainty reduction?

This presentation is a sequel to a 1994 ASQC reliability presentation. Nonparametric reliability estimation methods (1994) now include repairable systems and quantify uncertainty. Financial math, because (un)reliabiilty and its uncertainty cost $$$ and cause FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

The presentation includes new methods to deal with uncertainties, reviews others’ methods, proposes legal thinking and financial models for reliability and risk, and speculates on future uncertainty.

Official Website: http://www.asq-silicon-valley.org/