The Center Cannot Hold: Shifts in the Global Center of Gravity December 2, 2009

Host: Mercatus Center. In this lecture, Professor Jack Goldstone will discuss the implications of the coming shifts in global economic power. Plausible estimates of global economic growth patterns suggest a stunning shift in the center of global economic growth. Due to a combination of demographic and development trends, 70-80% of all economic growth in the world from 2010 to 2050 will occur outside of the US and Europe. A situation in which the major loci of economic growth is so detached from centers of military and financial power has not been seen since the late 19th century and may again provoke an economic and military scramble for access to new markets. The talk draws on Dr. Goldstone’s forthcoming article in Foreign Affairs, "The New Population Bomb: Five Population Megatrends that will Shape the Global Future."