Seminars About Long-Term Thinking: Philip Tetlock January 26, 2007

Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs

Why are so many experts so wrong, yet people keep listening to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? The author of Expert Political Judgement builds on Isaiah Berlin's characterization of judgment modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don't notice and don't care when they're wrong; that's why they're so compelling. Foxes learn.

Doors open 7:00pm, talk at 7:30pm (duration ~1.5 hours)

Official Website: http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/